38701 W Tin Star Trl

Seligman, AZ 86337

$163,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Pending · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,802/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $406/mo
• Annual: $4,876/yr
• Cap rate: 9.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.68%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $45,640

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $163k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#127 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Seligman Unified District (4472) (rural): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #339 of 501 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $140k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.0% in Seligman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.