38701 W Tin Star Trl · Seligman, AZ 86337

$163,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 125 Days on market

Built 2004 38 ac lot ↓ 52% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning 4-bedroom home in the country on just shy of 38 acres is a great opportunity for investors seeking to cash in. Boasting a 2281 sq. ft. layout, this residence has plenty of potential for 
you to capitalize. Make it your own by updating it to your desired cosmetic upgrades. Additionally, it features two bathrooms, large laundry room and two impressive porches, both waiting to be replaced. Adding to its convenience is the well pump and tank, gravity feed mound septic. It sits alone away from any neighbors with 360 degree views. with rural roads for an added picturesque touch, as well as landscaping that needs some TLC . The possibilities here are endless. Private money loan option available!

Key facts

• 37.54 acre lot
• Built 2004
• Listed 125 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.0% in Seligman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#127 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Seligman Unified District (4472) (rural): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #339 of 501 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $140k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $143,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.68%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $6,336
• Equity at exit: $31,651

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $44,842
• Equity at exit: $27,043

Cash invested: $45,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86337

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 293
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,802 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,137/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,288

Max offer price $163,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,750
• Closing costs: $4,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2024-05-10
   soldstatus $140,000 Closed 706-char remark

   Show marketing remark (706 chars)

   Stunning 4-bedroom home in the country on just shy of 38 acres is a great opportunity for investors seeking to cash in. Boasting a 2281 sq. ft. layout, this residence has plenty of potential for 
you to capitalize. Make it your own by updating it to your desired cosmetic upgrades. Additionally, it features two bathrooms, large laundry room and two impressive porches, both waiting to be replaced. Adding to its convenience is the well pump and tank, gravity feed mound septic. It sits alone away from any neighbors with 360 degree views. with rural roads for an added picturesque touch, as well as landscaping that needs some TLC . The possibilities here are endless. Private money loan option available!

2. 2024-04-24
   historical
3. 2024-03-14
   soldstatus $100,000
4. 2024-03-14
   soldstatus $140,000
5. 2024-02-26
   status Pending 706-char remark

   Show marketing remark (706 chars)

   Stunning 4-bedroom home in the country on just shy of 38 acres is a great opportunity for investors seeking to cash in. Boasting a 2281 sq. ft. layout, this residence has plenty of potential for 
you to capitalize. Make it your own by updating it to your desired cosmetic upgrades. Additionally, it features two bathrooms, large laundry room and two impressive porches, both waiting to be replaced. Adding to its convenience is the well pump and tank, gravity feed mound septic. It sits alone away from any neighbors with 360 degree views. with rural roads for an added picturesque touch, as well as landscaping that needs some TLC . The possibilities here are endless. Private money loan option available!

6. 2024-02-26
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (706 chars)

   Stunning 4-bedroom home in the country on just shy of 38 acres is a great opportunity for investors seeking to cash in. Boasting a 2281 sq. ft. layout, this residence has plenty of potential for 
you to capitalize. Make it your own by updating it to your desired cosmetic upgrades. Additionally, it features two bathrooms, large laundry room and two impressive porches, both waiting to be replaced. Adding to its convenience is the well pump and tank, gravity feed mound septic. It sits alone away from any neighbors with 360 degree views. with rural roads for an added picturesque touch, as well as landscaping that needs some TLC . The possibilities here are endless. Private money loan option available!

7. 2023-11-21
   price $163,000

   Show marketing remark (706 chars)

   Stunning 4-bedroom home in the country on just shy of 38 acres is a great opportunity for investors seeking to cash in. Boasting a 2281 sq. ft. layout, this residence has plenty of potential for 
you to capitalize. Make it your own by updating it to your desired cosmetic upgrades. Additionally, it features two bathrooms, large laundry room and two impressive porches, both waiting to be replaced. Adding to its convenience is the well pump and tank, gravity feed mound septic. It sits alone away from any neighbors with 360 degree views. with rural roads for an added picturesque touch, as well as landscaping that needs some TLC . The possibilities here are endless. Private money loan option available!

8. 2023-11-21
   price $163,000

   Show marketing remark (706 chars)

   Stunning 4-bedroom home in the country on just shy of 38 acres is a great opportunity for investors seeking to cash in. Boasting a 2281 sq. ft. layout, this residence has plenty of potential for 
you to capitalize. Make it your own by updating it to your desired cosmetic upgrades. Additionally, it features two bathrooms, large laundry room and two impressive porches, both waiting to be replaced. Adding to its convenience is the well pump and tank, gravity feed mound septic. It sits alone away from any neighbors with 360 degree views. with rural roads for an added picturesque touch, as well as landscaping that needs some TLC . The possibilities here are endless. Private money loan option available!

9. 2023-11-21
   price $163,000 706-char remark

   Show marketing remark (706 chars)

   Stunning 4-bedroom home in the country on just shy of 38 acres is a great opportunity for investors seeking to cash in. Boasting a 2281 sq. ft. layout, this residence has plenty of potential for 
you to capitalize. Make it your own by updating it to your desired cosmetic upgrades. Additionally, it features two bathrooms, large laundry room and two impressive porches, both waiting to be replaced. Adding to its convenience is the well pump and tank, gravity feed mound septic. It sits alone away from any neighbors with 360 degree views. with rural roads for an added picturesque touch, as well as landscaping that needs some TLC . The possibilities here are endless. Private money loan option available!

10. 2023-11-20
    price $167,000

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Stunning 4-bedroom home in the country on just shy of 38 acres is a great opportunity for investors seeking to cash in. Boasting a 2281 sq. ft. layout, this residence has plenty of potential for 
you to capitalize. Make it your own by updating it to your desired cosmetic upgrades. Additionally, it features two bathrooms, large laundry room and two impressive porches, both waiting to be replaced. Adding to its convenience is the well pump and tank, gravity feed mound septic. It sits alone away from any neighbors with 360 degree views. with rural roads for an added picturesque touch, as well as landscaping that needs some TLC . The possibilities here are endless. Private money loan option available!

11. 2023-11-20
    price $167,000 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Stunning 4-bedroom home in the country on just shy of 38 acres is a great opportunity for investors seeking to cash in. Boasting a 2281 sq. ft. layout, this residence has plenty of potential for 
you to capitalize. Make it your own by updating it to your desired cosmetic upgrades. Additionally, it features two bathrooms, large laundry room and two impressive porches, both waiting to be replaced. Adding to its convenience is the well pump and tank, gravity feed mound septic. It sits alone away from any neighbors with 360 degree views. with rural roads for an added picturesque touch, as well as landscaping that needs some TLC . The possibilities here are endless. Private money loan option available!

12. 2023-11-15
    price $167,000
13. 2023-11-06
    price $157,000 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Stunning 4-bedroom home in the country on just shy of 38 acres is a great opportunity for investors seeking to cash in. Boasting a 2281 sq. ft. layout, this residence has plenty of potential for 
you to capitalize. Make it your own by updating it to your desired cosmetic upgrades. Additionally, it features two bathrooms, large laundry room and two impressive porches, both waiting to be replaced. Adding to its convenience is the well pump and tank, gravity feed mound septic. It sits alone away from any neighbors with 360 degree views. with rural roads for an added picturesque touch, as well as landscaping that needs some TLC . The possibilities here are endless. Private money loan option available!

14. 2023-10-28
    price $177,000

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Stunning 4-bedroom home in the country on just shy of 38 acres is a great opportunity for investors seeking to cash in. Boasting a 2281 sq. ft. layout, this residence has plenty of potential for 
you to capitalize. Make it your own by updating it to your desired cosmetic upgrades. Additionally, it features two bathrooms, large laundry room and two impressive porches, both waiting to be replaced. Adding to its convenience is the well pump and tank, gravity feed mound septic. It sits alone away from any neighbors with 360 degree views. with rural roads for an added picturesque touch, as well as landscaping that needs some TLC . The possibilities here are endless. Private money loan option available!

15. 2023-10-28
    price $177,000 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Stunning 4-bedroom home in the country on just shy of 38 acres is a great opportunity for investors seeking to cash in. Boasting a 2281 sq. ft. layout, this residence has plenty of potential for 
you to capitalize. Make it your own by updating it to your desired cosmetic upgrades. Additionally, it features two bathrooms, large laundry room and two impressive porches, both waiting to be replaced. Adding to its convenience is the well pump and tank, gravity feed mound septic. It sits alone away from any neighbors with 360 degree views. with rural roads for an added picturesque touch, as well as landscaping that needs some TLC . The possibilities here are endless. Private money loan option available!

16. 2023-10-28
    price $177,000

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Stunning 4-bedroom home in the country on just shy of 38 acres is a great opportunity for investors seeking to cash in. Boasting a 2281 sq. ft. layout, this residence has plenty of potential for 
you to capitalize. Make it your own by updating it to your desired cosmetic upgrades. Additionally, it features two bathrooms, large laundry room and two impressive porches, both waiting to be replaced. Adding to its convenience is the well pump and tank, gravity feed mound septic. It sits alone away from any neighbors with 360 degree views. with rural roads for an added picturesque touch, as well as landscaping that needs some TLC . The possibilities here are endless. Private money loan option available!

17. 2023-10-21
    listed $187,000 Active
18. 2023-10-20
    listed $187,000 Active 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Stunning 4-bedroom home in the country on just shy of 38 acres is a great opportunity for investors seeking to cash in. Boasting a 2281 sq. ft. layout, this residence has plenty of potential for 
you to capitalize. Make it your own by updating it to your desired cosmetic upgrades. Additionally, it features two bathrooms, large laundry room and two impressive porches, both waiting to be replaced. Adding to its convenience is the well pump and tank, gravity feed mound septic. It sits alone away from any neighbors with 360 degree views. with rural roads for an added picturesque touch, as well as landscaping that needs some TLC . The possibilities here are endless. Private money loan option available!

19. 2023-10-20
    listed $187,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Stunning 4-bedroom home in the country on just shy of 38 acres is a great opportunity for investors seeking to cash in. Boasting a 2281 sq. ft. layout, this residence has plenty of potential for 
you to capitalize. Make it your own by updating it to your desired cosmetic upgrades. Additionally, it features two bathrooms, large laundry room and two impressive porches, both waiting to be replaced. Adding to its convenience is the well pump and tank, gravity feed mound septic. It sits alone away from any neighbors with 360 degree views. with rural roads for an added picturesque touch, as well as landscaping that needs some TLC . The possibilities here are endless. Private money loan option available!

20. 2023-09-25
    historical
21. 2023-09-18
    price $200,000
22. 2023-09-11
    price $260,000
23. 2023-08-28
    listed $290,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,137 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,137 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,628
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,131
• − Property taxes: −$1,137
• − Insurance: −$815
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,730
• − Management: −$1,730
• − Depreciation: −$4,742
• Taxable income: $2,343
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$562
• After-tax cash flow: $4,314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seligman Unified District (4472)
• NCES district ID: 0407630
• Math proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $35,531
• Composite: 23.7/100
• National rank: #13238
• State rank: #339 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Seligman

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #16174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,827

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.00%
• Current HPI: 196.1506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-51.7% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2024-05-10 Sold (MLS) $140,000 ARMLS
• 2024-04-24 Listing Removed — NAZMLS
• 2024-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-26 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-02-26 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-21 Price Changed $163,000 NAZMLS
• 2023-11-21 Price Changed $163,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-21 Price Changed $163,000 ARMLS
• 2023-11-20 Price Changed $167,000 NAZMLS
• 2023-11-20 Price Changed $167,000 ARMLS
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $167,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-06 Price Changed $157,000 ARMLS
• 2023-10-28 Price Changed $177,000 NAZMLS
• 2023-10-28 Price Changed $177,000 ARMLS
• 2023-10-28 Price Changed $177,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-21 Listed $187,000 NAZMLS
• 2023-10-20 Listed $187,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-20 Listed $187,000 ARMLS
• 2023-09-25 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-18 Price Changed $200,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-11 Price Changed $260,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-28 Listed $290,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,137 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.