4417 County Road 423

Coyote Flats, TX 76050

$245,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,138/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-4/mo
• Annual: $-53/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-53/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (12.8% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $214k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,193 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Adams El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 431 students, 76% FRL); Lowell Smith Jr Middle (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 929 students, 68% FRL); Cleburne H S (math 46% / reading 38%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 1,976 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.