4417 County Road 423 · Coyote Flats, TX 76050

$245,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 6 Days on market

Built 2024 1.00 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful double-wide mobile home situated on a spacious 1-acre lot, offering a blend of durability, comfort, and modern features. The exterior includes a 29-gauge metal roof, Hardie fascia board, and vinyl soffit for long-lasting, low-maintenance appeal. Interior features include 8-foot sidewalls, 16” on-center floor joists, and 2’ x 4’ marriage walls, providing added structural integrity. The kitchen offers rolled countertops with backsplash, LED recessed lighting, and a ceiling fan. Decorative plumbing fixtures are installed throughout the home. The primary bathroom includes dual vanity sinks for added convenience. A 50-gallon water heater ensures ample hot water supply

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 2024
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: On-site open parking
• Utilities: Aerobic septic; Co-op water; Not located in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Manufactured home (attached); One level; New construction completed in 2024
• Construction: Metal roof; Built in 2024
• Exterior features: No fencing; Easement for electric

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (level 1) with dual sinks and ensuite bath, approx. 13 x 13; Bedroom (level 1), approx. 12 x 12; Bedroom (level 1), approx. 11 x 11; Bedroom (level 9), approx. 9 x 9
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Heat pump; Ceiling fans; Electric heating
• Interior features: Open interior with five total rooms; Electric fireplace in living room; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Full-size washer/dryer area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-53/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,193 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Adams El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 431 students, 76% FRL); Lowell Smith Jr Middle (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 929 students, 68% FRL); Cleburne H S (math 46% / reading 38%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 1,976 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $213,758 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-39,952
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-35,023
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76050

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,138 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $244,356

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $80	+0% $-4	+5% $-89	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $-89	+0% $-4	+5% $80	+10% $164
Rate	-1.0pp $119	-0.5pp $58	base $-4	+0.5pp $-68	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 681-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $245,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,204
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,009
• After-tax cash flow: $956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coyote Flats

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1193
• US rank: #20882

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,178

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.89%
• Current HPI: 284.7756
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $245,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $259,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-02 Listed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-12-24 Price Changed $269,000 NTREIS
• 2024-09-12 Listed $270,000 NTREIS