1396 S Naco Hwy

Bisbee, AZ 85603

$130,900B-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,862 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,460/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$686
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $343/mo
• Annual: $4,116/yr
• Cap rate: 9.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.23%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $36,652

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $131k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $131k).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $905 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#151 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bisbee Unified District (4169) (town): math 10% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #218 of 249 in AZ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greenway Primary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #687 of 1,109 statewide, top 65%, 212 students, 76% FRL); Lowell School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #174 of 218 statewide, top 81%, 116 students, 66% FRL); Bisbee High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #281 of 381 statewide, top 75%, 352 students, 53% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $69k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.1% in Bisbee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.