24 bd · 12.0 ba ·
4,296 sqft ·
Built 1900
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 40 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$13,524/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$5,716
Tax + insurance
−$1,816
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,840
Net cashflow
$3,152/mo
Annual
$37,823/yr
Cap rate
9.76%
Cash-on-cash
12.39%
DSCR
1.55
1% rule
1.24%
Cash to close
$305,172
Investor read
This is a 4 × 6-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.09M. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($38k/yr) — positive. Per door: $788/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $1.09M).
It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.06M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.06M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $33k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#133 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D, amenities D.
Lawrence (suburban): math 10% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #300 of 302 in MA (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 12 active listings in the ZIP; 1,032 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (590 in 5+ unit buildings).
Essex County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $305k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.1% in Lawrence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $13,524/mo this rent would consume 240% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 1661% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XCE5MM7QN3KQJ4
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29