3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,184 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 113 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,694/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$221
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$356
Net cashflow
$251/mo
Annual
$3,018/yr
Cap rate
8.12%
Cash-on-cash
6.53%
DSCR
1.29
1% rule
1.03%
Cash to close
$46,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
East Pennsboro Area SD (suburban): math 30% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #275 of 539 in PA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: East Pennsboro Area Shs (math 82% / reading 72%, grade A-, #22 of 437 statewide, top 5%, 761 students, 36% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 77% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+34 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the East Pennsboro Area SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 126 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XCWRVG94JD76KW
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29