2183 Railroad St

Monticello, IL 61856

$189,900D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,948 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,646/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$309
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-4/mo
• Annual: $-47/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-47/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (13.3% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#69 in IL, #1,132 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Monticello CUSD 25 (town): math 30% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #123 of 620 in IL (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Monticello Middle School (math 25% / reading 56%, grade F, #136 of 665 statewide, top 21%, 379 students, 0% FRL); Monticello High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #107 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 476 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 15% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Piatt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Piatt County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.5% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.