215 Rodgers Rd

Marianna, AR 72360

$30,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,005 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 342 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,002/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $609/mo
• Annual: $7,307/yr
• Cap rate: 30.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.98%
• DSCR: 4.87
• 1% rule: 3.34%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 342 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $872 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#442 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Lee County School District (town): math 8% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #235 of 238 in AR (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 96% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $30k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 342 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.