215 Rodgers Rd · Marianna, AR 72360

$30,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,005 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 342 Days on market

Built 1968 7,405 sqft lot $30/sqft · 50% below area Est $60k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is full of potential and ready for your vision. Located on a quiet country street, this property offers the peace of country living with room to make it your own. With a bit of TLC, this could be transformed into a charming residence or a great rental property!

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1968
• Listed 341 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#442 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Lee County School District (town): math 8% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #235 of 238 in AR (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 96% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $872 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 342 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $30k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 342 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.98%
• DSCR: 4.87
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,546
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -49.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.05×
• Total profit: $34,036
• Equity at exit: $4,598

10-year hold

• IRR: 90.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.48×
• Total profit: $79,673
• Equity at exit: $2,808

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72360

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,002 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $151/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $231

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 342 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 341 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $30,000 Active 340 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $30,000 Active 339 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $30,000 Active 336 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $30,000 Active 335 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $30,000 Active 334 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $30,000 Active 333 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $30,000 Active 332 DOM
10. 2025-12-13
    price $30,000 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Investor Special! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is full of potential and ready for your vision. Located on a quiet country street, this property offers the peace of country living with room to make it your own. With a bit of TLC, this could be transformed into a charming residence or a great rental property!

11. 2025-08-16
    price $45,000 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Investor Special! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is full of potential and ready for your vision. Located on a quiet country street, this property offers the peace of country living with room to make it your own. With a bit of TLC, this could be transformed into a charming residence or a great rental property!

12. 2025-07-02
    listed $60,000 New Listing 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Investor Special! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is full of potential and ready for your vision. Located on a quiet country street, this property offers the peace of country living with room to make it your own. With a bit of TLC, this could be transformed into a charming residence or a great rental property!

13. 1984-06-30
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $151 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $192 · $16/mo
• Expected delta: +$41/yr (+$3/mo · 27.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,020
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$151
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$962
• − Management: −$962
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $7,242
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,738
• After-tax cash flow: $5,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County School District
• NCES district ID: 0509360
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,151
• Composite: 6.29/100
• National rank: #10002
• State rank: #235 of 238 in AR

Livability — Marianna

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #442
• US rank: #24531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marianna, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,173

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,633 people
• By 2030: 8,163 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 7,360 · -14.7%
• By 2050: 6,711 · -22.3%
• By 2075: 5,485 · -36.5%
• By 2100: 4,611 · -46.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 27% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.4% · R 46.9% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: 21.5pp · 2024: 3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.5 2020: D+4.8 2016: D+16.9 2012: D+24.2 2008: D+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.91%
• Current HPI: 87.7199
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $30,000 CARMLS
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $45,000 CARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Listed $60,000 CARMLS
• 1984-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $151 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.