1089 Woodman Way

Pine Hills, FL 32818

$185,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 889 sqft · Built 1984 · Townhouse · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,701/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$307
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $67/mo
• Annual: $804/yr
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.55%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($804/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (8.1% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#317 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William Frangus Elementary (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 418 students, 65% FRL); Robinswood Middle (math 25% / reading 29%, grade F, #497 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 1,080 students, 71% FRL); Ocoee High (math 17% / reading 38%, grade F, #470 of 667 statewide, top 71%, 2,536 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 181 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.8% in Pine Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.