7091 S Avenida Estrada

Drexel Heights, AZ 85746

$238,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,912 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,891/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax + insurance: −$397
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-151/mo
• Annual: $-1,814/yr
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $66,640

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-151 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (20.6% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#73 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $238k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Drexel Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.