7091 S Avenida Estrada · Drexel Heights, AZ 85746

$238,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1992 4,966 sqft lot $124/sqft · 20% below area Est $299k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Another beautifully remodeled Pima County Community Land Trust affordable homeownership opportunity. This large 4 bed/2 bath home with great room and living room is freshly painted inside and out, new heating and cooling, new flooring throughout, new stainless steel appliances. Buyer must be eligible to participate in this program. Agent is employed by Seller.

Key facts

• 4,966 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1992

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-151 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Drexel Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#73 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $238k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,063 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,773
• List price: $238,000
• Delta: -20.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2916 W Maxine Cir	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-7%)	1mo	$307,500	$173	70
3042 W Christopher Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0	1,756 (-8%)	3mo	$300,000	$171	63
6687 S Butch Cassidy Ave	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,057 (+8%)	0mo	$409,645	$199	62
6676 S Butch Cassidy Ave	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,057 (+8%)	1mo	$402,010	$195	62
6667 S Sundance Kid Ave	0.53mi	4/2.5	1,775 (-7%)	1mo	$375,700	$212	60
3012 W Paseo De Las Aves	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,770 (-7%)	3mo	$300,000	$169	55
3063 W Paseo De Las Aves	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,023 (+6%)	7mo	$280,000	$138	54
7437 S Via Hermosa	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,011 (+5%)	8mo	$339,900	$169	50
6751 S Pavo Real Pl	0.69mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (-4%)	8mo	$330,000	$180	45
3170 W Calle Cisne	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,730 (-10%)	9mo	$295,000	$171	43
3138 W Avenida Isabel	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-14%)	6mo	$290,500	$178	37
2601 W Partridge St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (-11%)	8mo	$346,000	$204	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-53,706
• Equity at exit: $35,487

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-80,461
• Equity at exit: $20,578

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85746

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,891 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$298 /mo · $3,570/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,082

Max offer price $216,126

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-69	+0% $-151	+5% $-233	+10% $-316
Rent	-10% $-301	-5% $-226	+0% $-151	+5% $-76	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-91	base $-151	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2811 W Calle del Tigre Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1787	$1,895	$1.06	17d	1	0.12mi
2511 W Vereda de las Flores Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1344	$2,500	$1.86	2d	1	0.30mi
2956 W Maxine Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,800	$1.34	17d	1	0.33mi
2946 W Ring Tail Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,655	$1.06	44d	1	0.43mi
3068 W Placita de la Roseta Tucson, AZ	3.0	3.0	1324	$1,600	$1.21	24d	1	0.56mi
3069 W Camino Fresco Tucson, AZ	3.0	3.0	1324	$1,640	$1.24	24d	1	0.64mi
3474 W Avenida Obregon Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.5	1825	$2,045	$1.12	44d	1	0.90mi
3486 W Center Mountain Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,725	$1.31	12d	1	0.92mi
3508 W Lost Village Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1865	$1,599	$0.86	17d	1	0.93mi
6653 S Via Vista de Santa Cruz Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1581	$1,745	$1.10	24d	1	0.93mi
3510 W Center Mountain Way Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1865	$1,895	$1.02	2d	1	0.94mi
3620 W Avenida del Mar Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1538	$1,955	$1.27	44d	1	1.03mi
6630 S Avenida Mirella Bonita Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,900	$1.50	44d	1	1.09mi
3724 W Fitzwater Ct Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,949	$1.47	24d	1	1.27mi
6143 S Mainside Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,395	$1.12	4d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $238,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $238,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $238,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $238,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $238,000 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Another beautifully remodeled Pima County Community Land Trust affordable homeownership opportunity. This large 4 bed/2 bath home with great room and living room is freshly painted inside and out, new heating and cooling, new flooring throughout, new stainless steel appliances. Buyer must be eligible to participate in this program. Agent is employed by Seller.

17. 2026-03-26
    listed $252,000 Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Another beautifully remodeled Pima County Community Land Trust affordable homeownership opportunity. This large 4 bed/2 bath home with great room and living room is freshly painted inside and out, new heating and cooling, new flooring throughout, new stainless steel appliances. Buyer must be eligible to participate in this program. Agent is employed by Seller.

18. 2010-03-16
    soldstatus $104,940 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    HUD home sold as is by electronic bid only. FHA case #022-179349.Property available 12/25/09, bids due on or before 12/29/09 @11:59PM or daily until sold. MCB makes no warranty as to current or future existence of mold in property & is not liable for potentially harmful effects thereof. Property (IE)$385. Per HUD $0 HOA fees, has microwave & fireplace.

19. 2009-11-06
    listed $110,000 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    HUD home sold as is by electronic bid only. FHA case #022-179349.Property available 12/25/09, bids due on or before 12/29/09 @11:59PM or daily until sold. MCB makes no warranty as to current or future existence of mold in property & is not liable for potentially harmful effects thereof. Property (IE)$385. Per HUD $0 HOA fees, has microwave & fireplace.

20. 2002-12-23
    soldstatus $100,000
21. 2002-10-29
    listed $100,000
22. 2002-02-01
    historical
23. 1996-07-20
    historical
24. 1996-01-20
    listed $97,900
25. 1994-12-20
    listed $104,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$3,570
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,815
• − Management: −$1,815
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$5,958
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,430
• After-tax cash flow: $-384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Drexel Heights

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #11688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Drexel Heights, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 42,835
• Household income: $68,903
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% White 20% Two or more races 16% Native American 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 46%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.03%
• Current HPI: 312.2096
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+127.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $238,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-26 Listed $252,000 MLSSAZ
• 2010-03-16 Sold (MLS) $104,940 MLSSAZ
• 2009-11-06 Listed $110,000 MLSSAZ
• 2002-12-23 Sold (MLS) $100,000 MLSSAZ
• 2002-10-29 Listed $100,000 MLSSAZ
• 2002-02-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 1996-07-20 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 1996-01-20 Listed $97,900 MLSSAZ
• 1994-12-20 Listed $104,500 MLSSAZ