17019 Olive St

Hesperia, CA 92345

$675,000C+

33 bd · 4.4 ba · 3,264 sqft · Built 1966 · MultiFamily · Active · 115 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $20,754/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,540
• Tax + insurance: −$490
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,358
• Net cashflow: $12,366/mo
• Annual: $148,389/yr
• Cap rate: 28.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.51%
• DSCR: 4.49
• 1% rule: 3.07%
• Cash to close: $189,000

Investor read

• This is a 11 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $675k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12k ($148k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $675k).
• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($614k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $614k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,009 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime D-.
• Hesperia Unified (suburban): math 20% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #353 of 517 in CA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 479 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $675k implies a 309% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $189k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 28.3% vs local median 3.7% in Hesperia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $20,754/mo this rent would consume 358% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 2768% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?