126 Spring Branch Hollow Rd

Monticello, KY 42544

$95,000C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 439 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $989/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $125/mo
• Annual: $1,500/yr
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.64%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($989 rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $605 of equity ($657 loan paydown + $-52 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#265 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wayne County (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #142 of 165 in KY (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Monticello Elementary School (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 630 students, 79% FRL); Wayne County Middle School (math 18% / reading 36%, grade F, #172 of 217 statewide, top 80%, 679 students, 75% FRL); Wayne County High School (math 24% / reading 40%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 940 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 57% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP.
• Wayne County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.6% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.