126 Spring Branch Hollow Rd · Monticello, KY 42544

$95,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 439 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 1.10 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Searching for a peaceful tiny home retreat near Lake Cumberland? This brand new 439 square foot tiny home on a 1-acre lot in Nancy, Kentucky offers the perfect blend of rural living and modern convenience. Whether you're looking for a weekend lake getaway, a full-time minimalist lifestyle, or an investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes. The home features attractive wood and stone siding, a durable metal roof, warm wood-finished interior walls, and a mini-split HVAC system to keep you comfortable year-round. Inside you'll find a functional layout complete with a designated bedroom, full bathroom, stove top, microwave, and refrigerator coming soon. Thoughtfully designed to m

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Full bathroom
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• WOOD AND STONE SIDING
• METAL ROOF
• MINI-SPLIT HVAC SYSTEM
• DESIGNATED BEDROOM
• FULL BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($989 rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.9% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#265 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wayne County (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #142 of 165 in KY (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $605 of equity ($657 loan paydown + $-52 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.64%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $4,952
• Equity at exit: $27,327

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $26,812
• Equity at exit: $32,644

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42544

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $989 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $158	+0% $125	+5% $92	+10% $59
Rent	-10% $47	-5% $86	+0% $125	+5% $164	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $173	-0.5pp $149	base $125	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-04-18
    status Pending
19. 2026-03-27
    price $94,900
20. 2026-03-18
    price $97,000
21. 2026-03-06
    price $97,900
22. 2026-02-24
    status Active
23. 2026-02-18
    historical Contingent
24. 2026-01-23
    price $99,000
25. 2026-01-07
    price $100,000
26. 2025-12-03
    price $97,400
27. 2025-10-31
    price $97,900
28. 2025-10-21
    price $98,900
29. 2025-10-08
    price $99,400
30. 2025-09-29
    price $99,500
31. 2025-09-05
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$950
• − Management: −$950
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$14
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3
• After-tax cash flow: $1,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand new 439 square foot tiny home on a 1-acre lot in Nancy, Kentucky is move-in ready with excellent condition and minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Addition of modern appliances — Improves functionality and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Addition of modern appliances — Improves functionality and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne County
• NCES district ID: 2105790
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $30,391
• Composite: 21.38/100
• National rank: #8358
• State rank: #142 of 165 in KY

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #12963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,731

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,477 people
• By 2030: 18,776 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 17,199 · -11.7%
• By 2050: 15,602 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 11,883 · -39.0%
• By 2100: 8,300 · -57.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Asian 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.5% · R 82.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.9pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+62.0 2016: R+61.8 2012: R+47.6 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.05%
• Current HPI: 273.9998
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $94,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $97,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $97,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-18 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $99,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $100,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $97,400 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $97,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $98,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $99,400 ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $99,500 ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-05 Listed $99,900 ImagineMLS