21 Center Dr

Lumberton, MS 39455

$29,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,235/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $709/mo
• Annual: $8,508/yr
• Cap rate: 34.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 101.63%
• DSCR: 5.52
• 1% rule: 4.13%
• Cash to close: $8,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $709 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#53 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar County School District (rural): math 48% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #18 of 130 in MS (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 300 active listings in the ZIP; 326 units permitted in Pearl River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pearl River County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 34.7% vs local median 5.4% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.