4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
3,702 sqft ·
Built 2003
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 25 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,147/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,543
Tax + insurance
−$1,078
HOA
−$33
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,081
Net cashflow
$412/mo
Annual
$4,939/yr
Cap rate
7.31%
Cash-on-cash
3.64%
DSCR
1.16
1% rule
1.06%
Cash to close
$135,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $485k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $412 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $485k).
It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($478k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $478k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in TX, #2,697 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
Kennedale ISD (suburban): math 27% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #522 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: James F Delaney El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 661 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 38% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.6% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $5,147/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 1311% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XF081A94Y2SXCA
· Data 8 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29