73 W Chestnut Ave

Vineland, NJ 08360

$289,900C+

4 bd · 0.0 ba · 1,621 sqft · Built 1880 · MultiFamily · Pending · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,510/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$483
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$737
• Net cashflow: $769/mo
• Annual: $9,234/yr
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.38%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $769 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $385/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $290k).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $281k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#363 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Vineland Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #418 of 472 in NJ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dane Barse Elementary School (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #944 of 1,303 statewide, top 73%, 219 students, 0% FRL); Thomas W. Wallace Jr. Middle School (math 5% / reading 29%, grade F, #409 of 431 statewide, top 95%, 778 students, 0% FRL); Vineland Senior High School (math 10% / reading 34%, grade F, #346 of 399 statewide, top 88%, 2,780 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 176 active listings in the ZIP; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.6% in Vineland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,510/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1328% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.