408 S Birch St

Odessa, WA 99159

$98,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,652 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,108/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $198/mo
• Annual: $2,379/yr
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.67%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $27,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#263 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Odessa School District (rural): math 35% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #166 of 291 in WA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: P C Jantz Elementary (124 students, 53% FRL); Odessa High School (112 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 37% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $98k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.