408 S Birch St · Odessa, WA 99159

$98,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,652 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 1940 7,001 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located next to school tennis courts and ball playing grounds. New electric 200 amp breaker box installed. Basement bedroom is non-conforming due to non-egress windows. Two freezers included.

Key facts

• Alley access
• Fenced yard
• Unfinished basement

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• ALLEY ACCESS
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• FORCED AIR HEAT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• ROOM FOR GARDENING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior exemption available
• Financial info: Accepts Cash and Conventional financing
• HOA & community: Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Two uncovered parking spaces; Garage (approx. 200 sq ft)
• Security: Partially fenced (listed as security feature)
• Utilities: Public water (Town of Odessa); Sewer connected (Town of Odessa); Electric and natural gas service; Power provided by Avista
• Home design: Detached single-family house; One story with basement; Entry on the main level; East-facing
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Poured concrete foundation; Effective year built 1940
• Exterior features: Wood exterior products; Partially fenced yard; Outbuildings; Alley access; Paved streets and sidewalks; Level topography; Community pool access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level); Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level) with bathtub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Partially fenced (security feature)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room on the lower level; Water heater located in the basement (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#263 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Odessa School District (rural): math 35% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #166 of 291 in WA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: P C Jantz Elementary (124 students, 53% FRL); Odessa High School (112 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 37% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $98k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,530 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.67%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,412
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 W 2nd Ave	0.21mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,614 (-2%)	7mo	$77,000	$48	74
112 W 4th Ave	0.06mi	2/1.0	1,562 (-5%)	21mo	$205,000	$131	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-2,769
• Equity at exit: $15,110

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $14,314
• Equity at exit: $9,331

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99159

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,108 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$122 /mo · $1,470/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $857

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $98,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $98,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $98,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $98,000 Active
17. 2014-08-29
    soldstatus $55,000
18. 2013-11-13
    listed $57,500
19. 2008-10-15
    soldstatus $58,000 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    Located next to school tennis courts and ball playing grounds. New electric 200 amp breaker box installed. Basement bedroom is non-conforming due to non-egress windows. Two freezers included.

20. 2008-06-12
    listed $63,000 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    Located next to school tennis courts and ball playing grounds. New electric 200 amp breaker box installed. Basement bedroom is non-conforming due to non-egress windows. Two freezers included.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$1,470
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,064
• − Management: −$1,064
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $871
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$209
• After-tax cash flow: $2,170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Odessa School District
• NCES district ID: 5306120
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,359
• Composite: 42.34/100
• National rank: #6948
• State rank: #166 of 291 in WA

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #263
• US rank: #9057

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, WA
• Population (ZIP): 1,177

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,599 people
• By 2030: 9,146 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 8,298 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 7,683 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 6,790 · -29.3%
• By 2100: 6,029 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.6) · D 23.6% · R 74.2% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.6 2020: R+48.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.89%
• Current HPI: 278.2447
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+55.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $98,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-29 Sold (MLS) $55,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-13 Listed $57,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-15 Sold (MLS) $58,000 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-12 Listed $63,000 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-36.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $4 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.