153 Fox Hill Ln

Fryeburg, ME 03813

$119,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 806 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$650
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $154/mo
• Annual: $1,853/yr
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#77 in ME) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Conway School District (rural): math 28% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #73 of 98 in NH (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Tree Elementary School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #219 of 263 statewide, top 86%, 221 students, 35% FRL); A. Crosby Kennett Middle School (math 22% / reading 44%, grade F, #60 of 96 statewide, top 63%, 235 students, 39% FRL); Kennett High School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #47 of 90 statewide, top 57%, 706 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Market conditions: 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 357 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $120k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.