153 Fox Hill Ln · Fryeburg, ME 03813

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 806 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2015 $650/mo HOA · 32% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cheerful, like-new mobile on a sunny level lot in Mountainvale. Features include an open floor plan with just over 900 square feet of living space, 2 bedrooms, a fully applianced kitchen, covered porch, spacious storage shed, and a laundry area equipped with full-size washer and dryer. You’ll love the natural setting in this well managed over 55 community only a few miles outside of North Conway. Easy to show…why not look today?

Key facts

• Low-maintenance yard
• Front porch
• Side deck

Tags

• FULLY APPLIANCED KITCHEN
• FRONT PORCH
• SIDE DECK
• LOW-MAINTENANCE YARD
• STORAGE SHED
• WEATHERIZED FOR EFFICIENCY

Property features AI

Other

• Documents & disclosures: Deed available; Property disclosure available

Finance

• Other: Mobile park: Mountainvale Village (park-approved, mobile anchored); Mobile make: Redman Homes
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of 650 that includes water and sewer; Road frontage: association-maintained and paved

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Community water; Community sewer; 100 amp electric with circuit breakers (EverSource); Internet via cable (Spectrum); Cable service available; Phone service (Consolidated); Propane fuel (Eastern Propane)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Grey exterior; Shingle (asphalt) roof
• Construction: Built in 2015; Steel frame with vinyl exterior
• Exterior features: Country setting; Paved driveway; Common land access (75 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom (9 x 10) — main level; Bedroom (12 x 12) — main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating with hot air; Cooling: Other
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Carpet and vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (5 x 5) with washer and dryer

Location

• : Directions: East Conway Rd. to Mountainvale Dr. Follow down to the four corners, bear right by the park office, then turn left onto Fox Hill Lane. Home on left.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#77 in ME) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Conway School District (rural): math 28% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #73 of 98 in NH (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 357 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $120k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $66,092
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Eagle Ledge Loop	0.10mi	2/1.5	924 (+15%)	1mo	$75,000	$81	68
50 Eagle Ledge Loop	0.17mi	2/1.0	924 (+15%)	2mo	$35,900	$39	66
74 Eagle Ledge Loop	0.15mi	2/1.0	920 (+14%)	12mo	$113,900	$124	60
92 Fox Hill Ln	0.03mi	2/2.0	924 (+15%)	14mo	$76,000	$82	58
38 Loon Mountain Ln	0.22mi	2/1.0	924 (+15%)	14mo	$70,000	$76	54
27 Wildwood Way	0.05mi	2/2.0	924 (+15%)	18mo	$110,000	$119	54
104 Blake Hill Rd	0.35mi	2/2.0	686 (-15%)	19mo	$115,000	$168	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $75,534
• Equity at exit: $108,015

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.42×
• Total profit: $215,490
• Equity at exit: $232,939

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03813

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,162/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$650
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,805

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $222	-5% $188	+0% $154	+5% $121	+10% $87
Rent	-10% $-4	-5% $75	+0% $154	+5% $233	+10% $312
Rate	-1.0pp $215	-0.5pp $185	base $154	+0.5pp $123	+1.0pp $92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Harmony Ln #13 Center Conway, NH	2.0	2.0	1064	$2,000	$1.88	45d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $650 · $7,800/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 620-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   listed $119,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,396 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$234/yr (+$20/mo · 20.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,162
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$7,800
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $394
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$95
• After-tax cash flow: $1,759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conway School District
• NCES district ID: 3302490
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,590
• Composite: 31.9/100
• National rank: #5859
• State rank: #73 of 98 in NH

Livability — Fryeburg

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #8749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,897

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,072 people
• By 2030: 43,158 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 38,044 · -15.6%
• By 2050: 33,087 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 25,661 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 18,684 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 2% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 10% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.8% · R 50.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -1.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.7 2020: D+1.5 2016: R+5.7 2012: R+0.8 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.27%
• Current HPI: 417.7399
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+84.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $119,900 PrimeMLS
• 2022-09-15 Sold (MLS) $78,000 PrimeMLS
• 2022-08-15 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2022-08-10 Price Changed $75,000 PrimeMLS
• 2022-07-07 Listed $84,900 PrimeMLS
• 2018-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2018-06-13 Sold (MLS) $57,000 PrimeMLS
• 2018-05-31 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2018-05-02 Listed $65,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,162 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.