14338 Sinclair

Magalia, CA 95954

$119,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,535/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$29
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $456/mo
• Annual: $5,470/yr
• Cap rate: 10.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.42%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,094 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Pine Ridge (191 students, 76% FRL); Paradise Junior High (164 students, 70% FRL); Paradise Senior High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 476 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 217 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.1% in Magalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.