14338 Sinclair · Magalia, CA 95954

$119,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1970 10,018 sqft lot Est $173k · 31% under $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming retreat nestled on a peaceful circle drive in Magalia. This inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a comfortable and functional layout with an open-concept feel, where the living room, family room, and formal dining area blend seamlessly to create an ideal space for both everyday living and entertaining. The home features a spacious enclosed patio, cozy wood stove, and an HVAC system updated in 2017 for year-round comfort. The kitchen provides ample cabinet and counter space, while the convenient indoor laundry area adds to the home's practicality. Outside, you'll find a variety of amenities designed to enhance your lifestyle, including concrete walkways, an acc

Key facts

• Indoor laundry area
• Wood stove
• Sunny deck

Tags

• ENCLOSED PATIO
• WOOD STOVE
• HVAC SYSTEM UPDATED
• INDOOR LAUNDRY AREA
• CONCRETE WALKWAYS
• SUNNY DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of an association (PPPOA); Annual association fee of $350; Association amenities include hiking trails, bocce ball court, pickleball, sauna, playground, tennis, pool, barbecue, spa, billiard room; Community characterized as foothills

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public/District water; Septic (type unknown)
• Home design: Planned development community; Single-story (1 story); Entry at level 1
• Construction: No ADU; Foundation not certified (per listing)
• Exterior features: Manufactured house; Association pool (see remarks); View

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central air cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; All bedrooms on the main level; Main level has 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms; Freestanding wood fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.0% in Magalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,094 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.42%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,376
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14295 Sinclair Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	2mo	$205,000	$153	88
14355 Clarion	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,320 (-2%)	4mo	$127,500	$97	85
6317 Amherst	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	5mo	$129,000	$103	66
14148 Wingate Cir	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	9mo	$210,000	$146	66
14530 Colter Way	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	8mo	$140,000	$104	60
14088 Wingate Cir	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,468 (+9%)	8mo	$105,000	$72	58
14424 Clarion	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	2mo	$162,000	$141	58
14545 Asheville	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	0mo	$80,000	$64	56
14174 Norwich Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	10mo	$186,000	$129	55
6493 Ponderosa	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,452 (+8%)	1mo	$229,000	$158	51
14471 Essex Ct	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	4mo	$155,000	$108	50
6295 Victoria Ct	0.69mi	2/2.5	1,215 (-10%)	0mo	$216,000	$178	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $9,731
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $45,787
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95954

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,535 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $651/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $958

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $523	-5% $490	+0% $456	+5% $422	+10% $388
Rent	-10% $335	-5% $395	+0% $456	+5% $516	+10% $577
Rate	-1.0pp $516	-0.5pp $486	base $456	+0.5pp $425	+1.0pp $394

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14435 Skyway Magalia, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,325	$1.10	14d	1	0.34mi
6494 Providence Ct Magalia, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	22d	1	0.71mi
14583 Asheville Dr Magalia, CA	1.0	1.0	1217	$1,500	$1.23	14d	1	0.78mi
6245 Brevard Cir Magalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,100	$1.46	14d	1	0.93mi
14648 Lafayette Cir Magalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,000	$1.16	14d	1	1.11mi
14767 Masterson Way Magalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,400	$0.97	14d	1	1.16mi
14745 Del Oro Dr Magalia, CA	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,525	$1.17	14d	1	1.18mi
14745 Del Oro Dr Magalia, CA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,525	$1.17	22d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $119,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $651 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $904 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$253/yr (+$21/mo · 38.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 42 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$651
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,474
• − Management: −$1,474
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $3,752
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$900
• After-tax cash flow: $4,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Magalia

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1094
• US rank: #25434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magalia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,488

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Russian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.49%
• Current HPI: 194.8809
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $119,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $651 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.