3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,494 sqft ·
Built 1952
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 4 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,678/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$308
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$352
Net cashflow
$153/mo
Annual
$1,841/yr
Cap rate
7.41%
Cash-on-cash
3.99%
DSCR
1.18
1% rule
1.02%
Cash to close
$46,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Timucuan Elementary School (math 34% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,951 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 491 students, 77% FRL); Lake Shore Middle School (math 25% / reading 22%, grade F, #536 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 972 students, 75% FRL); Westside High School (math 26% / reading 19%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 1,583 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 49% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $40k; list at $165k implies a 307% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XFSR5X4D0GS9XZ
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29