10 Meadow Run Pl

Paxtonia, PA 17112

$78,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,733/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax + insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $906/mo
• Annual: $10,868/yr
• Cap rate: 20.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.76%
• DSCR: 3.21
• 1% rule: 2.22%
• Cash to close: $21,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $906 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $77k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#233 in PA, #2,016 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Central Dauphin SD (suburban): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #305 of 539 in PA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Dauphin Shs (math 71% / reading 24%, grade D, #164 of 437 statewide, top 38%, 1,975 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.