10 Meadow Run Pl · Paxtonia, PA 17112

$78,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1985

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 10 Meadow Run Place, located in a desirable 55+ community, a home that has been lovingly cared for by the same family since it was built in 1984. Over the past two years, the property has undergone significant updates, making it truly move-in ready with nothing left to be done. All major appliances, including the refrigerator, gas stove, washer, and dryer, will remain with the home, and the dryer vent tubing was recently replaced in the summer of 2024 for added peace of mind. The home has seen extensive improvements throughout, highlighted by a brand-new HVAC system installed by HL Bowman in February 2026. New flooring extends through most of the house, with the exception of the

Key facts

• Updated bathrooms
• Refreshed kitchen
• New hvac system

Tags

• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• FULLY REBUILT BACK PORCH
• REFRESHED KITCHEN
• NEW BLINDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is listed by Coldwell Banker Realty
• Financial info: Improvement assessed at $9,100
• HOA & community: Monthly land lease of $735; Land lease has 99 years remaining

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking with 2 spaces (total 2 garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas hot water; Natural gas for heating; Electric cooling
• Home design: Manufactured home; Located in a senior community with a 55+ age requirement; Land lease ownership
• Construction: Frame construction; Shake and shingle roof
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Other structures both above grade and below grade

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range - Gas; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level (Master bedroom, Bedroom 2)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; No basement; Located in a 55+ senior community
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $906 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#233 in PA, #2,016 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Central Dauphin SD (suburban): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #305 of 539 in PA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Dauphin Shs (math 71% / reading 24%, grade D, #164 of 437 statewide, top 38%, 1,975 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,830 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.76%
• DSCR: 3.21
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $42,682
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $102,015
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17112

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,733 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $267/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $906

Break-even live

Break-even rent $587

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
158 Radle Rd Harrisburg, PA	3.0	2.5	1445	$1,895	$1.31	44d	1	0.22mi
25 Sarhelm Rd Unit E Harrisburg, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	44d	1	0.30mi
25 Sarhelm Rd Unit D Harrisburg, PA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	23d	1	0.30mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $78,000 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $78,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $78,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $78,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $78,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $78,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $78,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-05-24
    listed $78,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $267 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $750 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$483/yr (+$40/mo · 180.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$267
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,664
• − Management: −$1,664
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $10,178
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,443
• After-tax cash flow: $8,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Dauphin SD
• NCES district ID: 4205400
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,792
• Composite: 36.46/100
• National rank: #4664
• State rank: #305 of 539 in PA

Livability — Paxtonia

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #233
• US rank: #2016

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,502
• Household income: $103,876
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 412.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 8% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · India, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.10%
• Current HPI: 244.5366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $78,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $267 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.