The Blue Jay II Plan

Calhoun, GA 30701

$224,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 327 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,976/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,360
• Tax + insurance: −$499
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-298/mo
• Annual: $-3,571/yr
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.82%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $72,627

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (12.2% below list).
• It's been on market 327 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#129 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gordon County (rural): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #65 of 174 in GA (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Swain Elementary School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #435 of 1,228 statewide, top 37%, 402 students, 66% FRL); Ashworth Middle School (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #164 of 470 statewide, top 35%, 596 students, 65% FRL); Gordon Central High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #213 of 424 statewide, top 51%, 871 students, 63% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 669 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 414 units permitted in Gordon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.3% in Calhoun — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 327 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.