The Blue Jay II Plan · Calhoun, GA 30701

$223,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 235 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The efficient Blue Jay II plan offers three bedrooms, two full baths, and a large open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room. The owner's suite is located at the rear of the home for maximum privacy, with an ensuite bathroom and many opportunities to customize it based on your individual preferences. Add a fireplace in the family room for a cozy space to entertain and unwind. A covered rear patio completes the Blue Jay II and creates a backyard perfect for all of your outdoor living space needs.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Covered rear patio
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• COVERED REAR PATIO
• BACKYARD OUTDOOR LIVING

🏗️ New construction. The $223,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $259,713.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $224k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-488 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#129 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gordon County (rural): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #65 of 174 in GA (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Swain Elementary School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #435 of 1,228 statewide, top 37%, 402 students, 66% FRL); Ashworth Middle School (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #164 of 470 statewide, top 35%, 596 students, 65% FRL); Gordon Central High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #213 of 424 statewide, top 51%, 871 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 500 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 414 units permitted in Gordon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,831 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.96%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,713
• List price: $223,900
• Delta: -13.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
142 Red Oak Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	5mo	$256,895	$198	78
120 Fair Oak Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	7mo	$259,750	$200	77
138 Fair Oak Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	8mo	$258,750	$199	75
160 Levi St SW	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+0%)	4mo	$325,000	$223	74
127 Prince Albert Ct SW	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (+5%)	6mo	$330,000	$217	67
413 Beamer Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,401 (-3%)	1mo	$330,000	$236	66
111 Koufax Dr SW	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,557 (+7%)	3mo	$300,000	$193	60
458 Lakecrest Cir SW	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,295 (-11%)	6mo	$275,000	$212	53
419 Lakecrest Cir SW	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,406 (-3%)	18mo	$274,900	$196	51
373 SW Beamer Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-7%)	10mo	$275,000	$204	46
109 Gilmore Cir	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+6%)	16mo	$330,000	$215	44
373 Lakecrest Cir SW	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,645 (+13%)	10mo	$289,000	$176	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-75,616
• Equity at exit: $38,724

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-115,625
• Equity at exit: $22,455

Cash invested: $72,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.5 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $264,400 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 183 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30701

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,738 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,896/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,356

Max offer price $189,097

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-309	-5% $-398	+0% $-488	+5% $-578	+10% $-667
Rent	-10% $-625	-5% $-557	+0% $-488	+5% $-419	+10% $-351
Rate	-1.0pp $-357	-0.5pp $-422	base $-488	+0.5pp $-555	+1.0pp $-624

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,928
• Closing costs: $7,791
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
184 Fair Oak Ln Calhoun, GA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,795	$1.38	93d	1	0.03mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $223,900 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $223,900 Active 234 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $223,900 Active 233 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $223,900 Active 232 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $223,900 Active 231 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $223,900 Active 230 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $223,900 Active 227 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $223,900 Active 225 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $223,900 Active 223 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $223,900 Active 221 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $223,900 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $223,900 Active 219 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $223,900 Active 218 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $223,900 Active 217 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $223,900 Active 214 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $223,900 Active 212 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $223,900 Active 211 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $223,900 Active 210 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $223,900 Active 209 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $223,900 Active 208 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $223,900 Active 207 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $223,900 Active 206 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $223,900 Active 205 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $223,900 Active 204 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $223,900 Active 203 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $223,900 Active 202 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $223,900 Active 201 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $223,900 Active 200 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $223,900 Active 199 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $223,900 Active 198 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $223,900 Active 197 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $223,900 Active 196 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $223,900 Active 195 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $223,900 Active 194 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $223,900 Active 193 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $223,900 Active 192 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $223,900 Active 191 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $223,900 Active 188 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $223,900 Active 187 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $223,900 Active 185 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $223,900 Active 184 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $223,900 Active 183 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $223,900 Active 182 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    price $223,900 Active 181 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $232,400 Active 181 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $232,400 Active 179 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $232,400 Active 178 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $232,400 Active 176 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $232,400 Active 175 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $232,400 Active 174 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,548
• − Property taxes: −$3,896
• − Insurance: −$2,096
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,669
• − Management: −$1,669
• − Depreciation: −$7,555
• Taxable loss: −$10,573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,537
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,250–$21,750 screening

The Blue Jay II plan is in good condition with no visible damage. It has a good exterior, interior, and systems. The home has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready. Potential buyers can expect a good return on investment with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding a fireplace in the family room — A fireplace can add value to the home and provide a cozy space for entertaining and relaxation. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can make the bathrooms more functional and attractive to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Swain Elementary School F GA #435/1,228 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle Ashworth Middle School F GA #164/470 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Gordon Central High School F GA #213/424 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gordon County
• NCES district ID: 1302430
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,906
• Composite: 29.77/100
• National rank: #6430
• State rank: #65 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Calhoun

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #9072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Gordon County · 59,151 people
• City population: 44,691
• Metro: Calhoun, GA
• Population (ZIP): 44,691
• Household income: $63,921
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

---

Population outlook (Gordon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,151 people
• By 2030: 59,968 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 60,579 · +2.4%
• By 2050: 59,396 · +0.4%
• By 2075: 52,383 · -11.4%
• By 2100: 41,219 · -30.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Gordon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.4) · D 18.1% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -50.2pp · 2024: -63.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.4 2020: R+62.5 2016: R+63.6 2012: R+57.8 2008: R+50.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.88%
• Current HPI: 250.1595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.54%
• Metro: Calhoun, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $232,400 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Listed $229,900 Zillow