1738 El Prado Rd #8

Jacksonville, FL 32216

$125,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · Built 1967 · Condo · Active · 141 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,669/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$500
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-41/mo
• Annual: $-495/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.42%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.34%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-495/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (5.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hogan-Spring Glen Elementary School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 450 students, 62% FRL); Arlington Middle School (math 23% / reading 21%, grade F, #549 of 571 statewide, top 97%, 798 students, 74% FRL); Englewood High School (math 21% / reading 21%, grade F, #551 of 667 statewide, top 83%, 1,741 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 49% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?