The Birch Plan

Statesboro, GA 30461

$301,900F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,434 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 191 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,041/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,990
• Tax + insurance: −$758
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-1,136/mo
• Annual: $-13,628/yr
• Cap rate: 3.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.41%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $106,274

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $302k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (32.4% below list).
• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#151 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Bulloch County (rural): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #85 of 174 in GA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mattie Lively Elementary School (math 16% / reading 18%, grade F, #936 of 1,228 statewide, top 79%, 585 students, 76% FRL); William James Middle School (math 27% / reading 39%, grade F, #213 of 470 statewide, top 47%, 577 students, 66% FRL); Statesboro High School (math 15% / reading 12%, grade F, #325 of 424 statewide, top 78%, 1,760 students, 63% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 396 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 668 units permitted in Bulloch County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bulloch County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?