The Birch Plan · Statesboro, GA 30461

$286,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,434 sqft · SingleFamily · 237 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Birch is a spacious two-story new construction home in Southeast Georgia and Bluffton, South Carolina, offering 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 2,434 square feet. Part of the Heartland Collection, this plan is designed for flexibility and everyday practicality. A first-floor bedroom with full bath is ideal for guests or multi-generational living. The open main living area connects the kitchen, dining, and family room, creating a natural gathering space. Upstairs, a central loft separates the primary suite from three additional bedrooms, giving everyone their own retreat. For buyers looking for larger new homes near Brunswick, Kingsland, Savannah, Statesboro, and Bluffton, SC, the Birch provides room to grow, energy-efficient construction, and the peace of mind of a locally trusted builder.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 236 days

🏗️ New construction. The $286,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $356,177.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $287k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-983 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (25.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#151 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Bulloch County (rural): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #85 of 174 in GA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mattie Lively Elementary School (math 16% / reading 18%, grade F, #936 of 1,228 statewide, top 79%, 585 students, 76% FRL); William James Middle School (math 27% / reading 39%, grade F, #213 of 470 statewide, top 47%, 577 students, 66% FRL); Statesboro High School (math 15% / reading 12%, grade F, #325 of 424 statewide, top 78%, 1,760 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 668 units permitted in Bulloch County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bulloch County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,042 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.32%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,177
• List price: $286,900
• Delta: -19.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 Royal Fern Ln	0.32mi	5/3.5	2,618 (+8%)	3mo	$354,990	$136	68
309 Royal Fern Ln	0.33mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,340 (-4%)	6mo	$339,990	$145	67
315 Royal Fern Ln	0.34mi	5/3.5	2,618 (+8%)	4mo	$350,000	$134	66
302 Browning Ct	0.46mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,348 (-4%)	4mo	$330,000	$141	62
126 Sweet Briar Trl	0.72mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,089 (-14%)	2mo	$329,999	$158	32
230 Magnolia Pl	0.74mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,754 (+13%)	7mo	$449,900	$163	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-120,193
• Equity at exit: $53,107

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.85×
• Total profit: $-184,813
• Equity at exit: $30,796

Cash invested: $99,730 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 24 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 20.6 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $337,990 ($144/sqft)
• Median days on market: 81 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30461

• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,868
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$445 /mo · $5,343/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-983

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,274

Max offer price $213,988

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-736	-5% $-860	+0% $-983	+5% $-1,106	+10% $-1,229
Rent	-10% $-1,143	-5% $-1,063	+0% $-983	+5% $-902	+10% $-822
Rate	-1.0pp $-803	-0.5pp $-892	base $-983	+0.5pp $-1,075	+1.0pp $-1,169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,044
• Closing costs: $10,685
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $286,900 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $286,900 Active 236 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $286,900 Active 235 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $286,900 Active 234 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $286,900 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $286,900 Active 231 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $286,900 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $286,900 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $286,900 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $286,900 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $286,900 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $286,900 Active 225 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $286,900 Active 224 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $286,900 Active 223 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $286,900 Active 222 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $286,900 Active 221 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $286,900 Active 220 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $286,900 Active 219 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    pricedays on market $286,900 Active 218 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $301,900 Active 217 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $301,900 Active 216 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $301,900 Active 215 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $301,900 Active 214 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $301,900 Active 213 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $301,900 Active 212 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $301,900 Active 211 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $301,900 Active 210 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $301,900 Active 209 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $301,900 Active 208 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $301,900 Active 207 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $301,900 Active 206 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $301,900 Active 205 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $301,900 Active 204 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $301,900 Active 203 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $301,900 Active 202 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $301,900 Active 201 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $301,900 Active 200 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $301,900 Active 199 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $301,900 Active 198 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $301,900 Active 197 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $301,900 Active 196 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $301,900 Active 195 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $301,900 Active 194 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $301,900 Active 193 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $301,900 Active 192 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $301,900 Active 191 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $301,900 Active 190 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $301,900 Active 189 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $301,900 Active 188 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $301,900 Active 187 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,951
• − Property taxes: −$5,343
• − Insurance: −$3,283
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,949
• − Management: −$1,949
• − Depreciation: −$10,362
• Taxable loss: −$18,472
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,433
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home in Statesboro, GA, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious floor plan and is ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers ↑
• Both Upgrading HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mattie Lively Elementary School F GA #936/1,228 Nat'l #35,191/41,679 Middle William James Middle School F GA #213/470 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Statesboro High School F GA #325/424 Nat'l #15,655/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bulloch County
• NCES district ID: 1300630
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,335
• Composite: 26.97/100
• National rank: #7074
• State rank: #85 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Statesboro

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #9809

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bulloch County · 79,935 people
• City population: 67,164
• Metro: Statesboro, GA
• Population (ZIP): 17,447
• Household income: $80,224
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Bulloch County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 79,935 people
• By 2030: 83,796 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 89,717 · +12.2%
• By 2050: 94,558 · +18.3%
• By 2075: 104,376 · +30.6%
• By 2100: 112,857 · +41.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bulloch

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.0) · D 35.3% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.0 2020: R+23.7 2016: R+23.4 2012: R+19.1 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.47%
• Current HPI: 184.7341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Statesboro, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $301,900 Zillow