813 Bailey Rd

Pineville, MO 64856

$179,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2002 · Other · Pending · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,350/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-115/mo
• Annual: $-1,374/yr
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.26%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (24.6% below list).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#447 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mcdonald County R-I (rural): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #192 of 324 in MO (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pineville Primary (100 students, 48% FRL); Pineville Elem. (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #149 of 391 statewide, top 41%, 121 students, 55% FRL); Mcdonald County High (math 15% / reading 52%, grade F, #349 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 1,051 students, 59% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 20 units permitted in McDonald County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McDonald County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?