813 Bailey Rd · Pineville, MO 64856

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Other public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2002 0.96 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Manufactured home. .. and then some. This 2002 model manufactured home sitting on the edge of the Pineville city limits offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths and a bonus room near the entry and just off of the living room. The property consists of a large (nearly 1 acre) lot, with a wet weather branch flowing through the back yard and a large multi-faceted shop building with tons of potential. With interior walls already set and electric, as well as plumbing in place, the shop could be attached to the manufactured home to create a large residence, finished separately to create a separate apartment or finished out as a large shop/garage. With the extra-large lot and additional utility hook-ups you also have the potential of adding another residence for personal usage or rental property.

Key facts

• Large lot
• 0.96 acre lot
• Built 2002

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• MULTI-FACETED SHOP BUILDING
• ADDITIONAL UTILITY HOOK-UPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#447 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mcdonald County R-I (rural): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #192 of 324 in MO (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pineville Primary (100 students, 48% FRL); Pineville Elem. (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #149 of 391 statewide, top 41%, 121 students, 55% FRL); Mcdonald County High (math 15% / reading 52%, grade F, #349 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 1,051 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 20 units permitted in McDonald County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• McDonald County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.26%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $36,414
• Equity at exit: $104,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $115,272
• Equity at exit: $181,798

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64856

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $510/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,495

Max offer price $158,770

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-64	+0% $-115	+5% $-165	+10% $-216
Rent	-10% $-221	-5% $-168	+0% $-115	+5% $-61	+10% $-8
Rate	-1.0pp $-24	-0.5pp $-69	base $-115	+0.5pp $-161	+1.0pp $-208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
810 King Ave Pineville, MO	2.0	1.0	896	$1,350	$1.51	16d	1	0.16mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-01-28
   status Pending 790-char remark

   Show marketing remark (790 chars)

   Manufactured home. .. and then some. This 2002 model manufactured home sitting on the edge of the Pineville city limits offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths and a bonus room near the entry and just off of the living room. The property consists of a large (nearly 1 acre) lot, with a wet weather branch flowing through the back yard and a large multi-faceted shop building with tons of potential. With interior walls already set and electric, as well as plumbing in place, the shop could be attached to the manufactured home to create a large residence, finished separately to create a separate apartment or finished out as a large shop/garage. With the extra-large lot and additional utility hook-ups you also have the potential of adding another residence for personal usage or rental property.

2. 2026-01-28
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (790 chars)

   Manufactured home. .. and then some. This 2002 model manufactured home sitting on the edge of the Pineville city limits offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths and a bonus room near the entry and just off of the living room. The property consists of a large (nearly 1 acre) lot, with a wet weather branch flowing through the back yard and a large multi-faceted shop building with tons of potential. With interior walls already set and electric, as well as plumbing in place, the shop could be attached to the manufactured home to create a large residence, finished separately to create a separate apartment or finished out as a large shop/garage. With the extra-large lot and additional utility hook-ups you also have the potential of adding another residence for personal usage or rental property.

3. 2025-11-13
   listed $179,000 Active 790-char remark

   Show marketing remark (790 chars)

   Manufactured home. .. and then some. This 2002 model manufactured home sitting on the edge of the Pineville city limits offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths and a bonus room near the entry and just off of the living room. The property consists of a large (nearly 1 acre) lot, with a wet weather branch flowing through the back yard and a large multi-faceted shop building with tons of potential. With interior walls already set and electric, as well as plumbing in place, the shop could be attached to the manufactured home to create a large residence, finished separately to create a separate apartment or finished out as a large shop/garage. With the extra-large lot and additional utility hook-ups you also have the potential of adding another residence for personal usage or rental property.

4. 2025-11-13
   listed $179,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (790 chars)

   Manufactured home. .. and then some. This 2002 model manufactured home sitting on the edge of the Pineville city limits offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths and a bonus room near the entry and just off of the living room. The property consists of a large (nearly 1 acre) lot, with a wet weather branch flowing through the back yard and a large multi-faceted shop building with tons of potential. With interior walls already set and electric, as well as plumbing in place, the shop could be attached to the manufactured home to create a large residence, finished separately to create a separate apartment or finished out as a large shop/garage. With the extra-large lot and additional utility hook-ups you also have the potential of adding another residence for personal usage or rental property.

5. 2023-01-26
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $510 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,736 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,226/yr (+$102/mo · 240.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$510
• − Insurance: −$2,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$4,534
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,088
• After-tax cash flow: $-286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcdonald County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2920610
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,301
• Composite: 31.28/100
• National rank: #6017
• State rank: #192 of 324 in MO

Livability — Pineville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #447
• US rank: #18254

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pineville, MO
• Population (ZIP): 4,154

Population outlook (McDonald County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,753 people
• By 2030: 21,154 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 19,946 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 18,666 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 16,201 · -25.5%
• By 2100: 14,550 · -33.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McDonald

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.8) · D 15.2% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -68.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.8 2020: R+66.6 2016: R+64.0 2012: R+48.3 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.24%
• Current HPI: 183.5874
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-11-13 Listed $179,000 SOMO
• 2025-11-13 Listed $179,000 NWARMLS
• 2023-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $510 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.