Townsend Plan

Raleigh, NC 27616

$465,320F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,687 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,476/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,719
• Tax + insurance: −$864
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-1,627/mo
• Annual: $-19,522/yr
• Cap rate: 2.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.45%
• DSCR: 0.40
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $145,180

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $465k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (39.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (46.8% below list).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $248k (46.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in NC, #1,028 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Harris Creek Elementary (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #477 of 1,410 statewide, top 35%, 852 students, 47% FRL); Rolesville Middle (math 44% / reading 54%, grade C-, #122 of 475 statewide, top 26%, 1,021 students, 38% FRL); Rolesville High (math 52% / reading 48%, grade D+, #309 of 535 statewide, top 58%, 2,373 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 684 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 83d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.