Townsend Plan · Raleigh, NC 27616

$465,320

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,687 sqft · SingleFamily · 123 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step onto the patio just off the kitchen for easy outdoor relaxation or weekend BBQs. Two flexible downstairs spaces let you design a home office, gym or hobby room.

Key facts

• Hobby room
• Downstairs spaces
• Gym

Tags

• DOWNSTAIRS SPACES
• HOME OFFICE
• GYM
• HOBBY ROOM
• ROOMY LOFT
• SPACIOUS BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $465,320 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $518,500.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $465k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (39.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (46.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (46.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in NC, #1,028 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Harris Creek Elementary (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #477 of 1,410 statewide, top 35%, 852 students, 47% FRL); Rolesville Middle (math 44% / reading 54%, grade C-, #122 of 475 statewide, top 26%, 1,021 students, 38% FRL); Rolesville High (math 52% / reading 48%, grade D+, #309 of 535 statewide, top 58%, 2,373 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 684 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 83d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $247,641 (46.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.45%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 17.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $518,500
• List price: $465,320
• Delta: -10.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4205 Wesley Chapel Way	0.21mi	5/3.0	2,674 (-0%)	3mo	$470,000	$176	87
4209 Wesley Chapel Way	0.23mi	5/3.0	2,674 (-0%)	3mo	$450,000	$168	86
3528 Telluride Trl	0.15mi	5/3.0	2,950 (+10%)	3mo	$529,000	$179	74
3520 Telluride Trl	0.16mi	5/3.0	2,950 (+10%)	4mo	$518,000	$176	73
4105 Wesley Chapel Way	0.17mi	5/4.0	2,950 (+10%)	3mo	$500,000	$169	69
3009 Sandy Bluff Rd	0.63mi	5/3.0	2,619 (-2%)	2mo	$488,900	$187	64
3008 Sandy Bluff Rd	0.62mi	5/3.0	2,619 (-2%)	3mo	$490,000	$187	64
4210 Gray Alder Ln	0.66mi	5/3.0	2,619 (-2%)	4mo	$490,000	$187	61
4112 Taylor Oaks Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,326 (-13%)	2mo	$370,000	$159	52
3017 Sandy Bluff Rd	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,342 (-13%)	2mo	$469,900	$201	43
8108 Braefield	0.69mi	5/3.0	3,072 (+14%)	2mo	$572,000	$186	42
3004 Sandy Bluff Rd	0.62mi	5/4.0	3,072 (+14%)	3mo	$529,990	$173	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -42.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-190,578
• Equity at exit: $77,310

10-year hold

• IRR: -82.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.14×
• Total profit: $-311,153
• Equity at exit: $44,830

Cash invested: $145,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 58 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.2 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $482,995 ($177/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 27616

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 684
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,476 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,719
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$648 /mo · $7,778/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-1,627

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,536

Max offer price $283,089

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,269	-5% $-1,448	+0% $-1,627	+5% $-1,806	+10% $-1,985
Rent	-10% $-1,823	-5% $-1,725	+0% $-1,627	+5% $-1,529	+10% $-1,431
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,366	-0.5pp $-1,495	base $-1,627	+0.5pp $-1,761	+1.0pp $-1,898

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,625
• Closing costs: $15,555
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4209 Wesley Chapel Way Raleigh, NC	5.0	3.0	2674	$2,695	$1.01	82d	1	0.24mi
4014 Springfield Creek Dr Raleigh, NC	4.0	3.0	2236	$2,500	$1.12	113d	1	0.46mi
4027 Taylor Oaks Dr Raleigh, NC	4.0	2.5	1996	$2,180	$1.09	62d	1	0.46mi
4010 Taylor Oaks Dr Raleigh, NC	4.0	2.5	2325	$2,250	$0.97	119d	1	0.50mi
4010 Taylor Oaks Dr Raleigh, NC	4.0	2.5	2326	$2,250	$0.97	87d	1	0.50mi
3608 Serendipity Dr Raleigh, NC	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,295	$0.92	5d	1	0.57mi
3016 Sandy Bluff Rd Raleigh, NC	5.0	4.0	3037	$2,590	$0.85	117d	1	0.59mi
8112 Rolling Glenn Dr Raleigh, NC	4.0	2.5	2251	$2,295	$1.02	110d	1	0.86mi
3917 Eccles Ln Raleigh, NC	5.0	3.0	2950	$2,650	$0.90	79d	1	0.86mi
8164 Rolling Glenn Dr Raleigh, NC	4.0	2.5	1854	$2,100	$1.13	119d	1	0.98mi
8000 Wesley Farm Dr Raleigh, NC	4.0	2.5	2336	$2,335	$1.00	0d	1	1.05mi
3712 Massey Pond Trl Raleigh, NC	5.0	3.0	2715	$2,600	$0.96	10d	1	1.21mi
3973 White Kestrel Dr Raleigh, NC	4.0	2.5	2176	$2,250	$1.03	119d	1	1.38mi
3160 Landing Falls Ln Raleigh, NC	4.0	2.5	2470	$2,250	$0.91	7d	1	1.44mi
3716 Massey Ridge Ct Raleigh, NC	4.0	2.5	2508	$2,599	$1.04	82d	1	1.46mi
3636 Massey Ridge Ct Raleigh, NC	4.0	2.5	2282	$2,324	$1.02	10d	1	1.48mi
3825 Althorp Dr Raleigh, NC	5.0	3.0	2556	$1,300	$0.51	72d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 4004 Wesley Chapel Way, Raleigh, NC 27616
• Financial info: Listing status: ActiveList price: $462,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Townsend)
• Construction: New construction
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,687 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named TownsendNew construction plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $465,320 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $465,320 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $465,320 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   pricedays on market $465,320 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $465,790 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $465,790 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $465,790 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $465,790 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $465,790 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $465,790 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    price $465,790 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $465,900 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $465,900 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $465,900 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $455,900 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $455,900 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $455,900 Active 102 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $485,900 Active 99 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $485,900 Active 97 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $485,900 Active 96 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $485,900 Active 95 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    pricedays on market $485,900 Active 94 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $485,000 Active 93 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $485,000 Active 92 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $485,000 Active 91 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $485,000 Active 90 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $485,000 Active 89 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $485,000 Active 88 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $485,000 Active 87 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $485,000 Active 86 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $485,000 Active 85 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $485,000 Active 84 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $485,000 Active 83 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $485,000 Active 82 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $485,000 Active 81 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    pricedays on market $485,000 Active 80 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $519,000 Active 79 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $519,000 Active 78 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $519,000 Active 77 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $519,000 Active 76 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $519,000 Active 75 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $519,000 Active 74 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $519,000 Active 73 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $519,000 Active 71 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $519,000 Active 68 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    pricedays on market $519,000 Active 66 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $519,070 Active 65 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $519,070 Active 63 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $519,000 Active 61 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $519,000 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,044
• − Property taxes: −$7,778
• − Insurance: −$2,592
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,377
• − Management: −$2,377
• − Depreciation: −$15,084
• Taxable loss: −$29,535
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,089
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $13,435–$40,305 screening

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, well-maintained exterior and landscaping. It has potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior design.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be replaced with hardwood or tile for a more modern look and easier maintenance. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Harris Creek Elementary D NC #477/1,410 Nat'l #14,249/41,679 Middle Rolesville Middle C- NC #122/475 Nat'l #3,736/14,009 High Rolesville High D+ NC #309/535 Nat'l #5,448/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wake County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704720
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,509
• Composite: 49.41/100
• National rank: #2010
• State rank: #35 of 178 in NC

A Composite livability gradescore 83/100

Livability — Raleigh

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1028

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Raleigh, NC
• County: Wake County · 1,293,152 people
• City population: 569,344
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 63,520
• Household income: $83,565
• Rent vs Own: 44.0% rent · 56.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

---

Population outlook (Wake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,293,152 people
• By 2030: 1,428,223 · +10.4%
• By 2040: 1,698,188 · +31.3%
• By 2050: 1,955,807 · +51.2%
• By 2075: 2,520,273 · +94.9%
• By 2100: 2,893,335 · +123.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 38% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Wake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.5) · D 61.9% · R 36.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.1pp toward D · 2008: 14.4pp · 2024: 25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.5 2020: D+26.4 2016: D+20.5 2012: D+10.2 2008: D+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.35%
• Current HPI: 224.0782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.79%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 4004 Wesley Chapel Way, Raleigh, NC 27616
• Financial info: Listing status: ActiveList price: $462,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Townsend)
• Construction: New construction
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,687 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named TownsendNew construction plan