11129 Carp Lake Rd

Richwoods, MO 63071

$149,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,462 sqft · Built 1950 · Other · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,100/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-4/mo
• Annual: $-53/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-53/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (26.6% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $110k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Richwoods R-VII (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #432 of 535 in MO (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Richwoods Elem. (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #850 of 1,115 statewide, top 78%, 151 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 74% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP.
• Washington County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.