141 Scuttle Hole Rd

Water Mill, NY 11976

$1,590,000A-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $52,528/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,338
• Tax + insurance: −$1,041
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$11,031
• Net cashflow: $32,118/mo
• Annual: $385,416/yr
• Cap rate: 30.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.72%
• DSCR: 4.86
• 1% rule: 3.30%
• Cash to close: $445,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.59M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32k ($385k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($53k rent vs $1.59M).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.54M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.54M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $148k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $137k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $1.59M implies a 623% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $445k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$238k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 30.6% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.