141 Scuttle Hole Rd · Water Mill, NY 11976

$1,590,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1987 1.93 ac lot $1052/sqft · at area comps Est $1607k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Refined Craftsmanship and Modern Comforts Nestled on a serene 1.93-acre plot, this meticulously crafted 2-story shingle-style home offers an exquisite blend of traditional design and modern enhancements. Built by Peter Harwood in 1987, the residence showcases the fine touch of a master cabinetmaker with structural and decorative woodwork throughout. The interior features wide pine plank flooring on both levels, spruce ceilings and walls, and custom cherry wood kitchen cabinets. Eight-inch square cedar columns not only support the structure but add a distinct architectural element to the interiors. This home has been updated with state-of-the-art mechanical systems to ensure comfort and efficiency. In 2023, a new Lochinvar high-efficiency heater and boiler were installed in the full basement. The property also features modern Daikin Inverter AC/Heating units installed in two upstairs bedrooms and the living and primary bedrooms in 2019. Both upstairs bathrooms have been elegantly retiled in 2022, ensuring modern comforts blend seamlessly with classic charm. Additional updates include a new roof in 2018 and a robust Generac generator installed in 2012. Set below an agricultural reserve and overlooking vibrant wetlands, this home promises a tranquil retreat with a symphony of nature at your doorstep. The property bursts into life with seasonal blooms-from snowdrops and crocuses to lilacs and hydrangeas-creating a lush backdrop that attracts local wildlife, including hummingbirds and honeybees. Large windows and a back deck offer panoramic views of this natural paradise, where tree frogs, Mallard ducks, and occasional herons add to the pastoral charm. The landscape turns into a picturesque winter wonderland, completing the cycle of seasonal beauty that defines living in Water Mill. Discover the perfect blend of artisan craftsmanship and modern luxury at this Water Mill sanctuary, where every detail contributes to a life well-lived amidst the beauty of the Hamptons.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Generac generator
• 1.93-acre plot

Tags

• 1.93-ACRE PLOT
• WIDE PINE PLANK FLOORING
• UPSTAIRS BATHROOMS RETILED
• NEW ROOF
• GENERAC GENERATOR
• LARGE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.59M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32k ($385k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($53k rent vs $1.59M).
• Recommended offer: $1.54M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.6% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $148k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $137k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $445k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$238k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.54M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $1.59M implies a 623% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,542,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.72%
• DSCR: 4.86
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,606,854
• List price: $1,590,000
• Delta: -1.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
436 Scuttle Hole Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,459 (-4%)	19mo	$1,075,000	$737	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 99.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.83×
• Total profit: $3,042,761
• Equity at exit: $1,276,858

10-year hold

• IRR: 96.9%
• Equity multiple: 19.00×
• Total profit: $8,013,017
• Equity at exit: $2,603,240

Cash invested: $445,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $52,528 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,338
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,875/yr
• Insurance: −$662
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$11,031
• Net cashflow: $32,118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,872

Max offer price $1,590,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $397,500
• Closing costs: $47,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $1,590,000 Pending 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,590,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-04-14
    listed $1,590,000 Active 1995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1995 chars)

    Refined Craftsmanship and Modern Comforts Nestled on a serene 1.93-acre plot, this meticulously crafted 2-story shingle-style home offers an exquisite blend of traditional design and modern enhancements. Built by Peter Harwood in 1987, the residence showcases the fine touch of a master cabinetmaker with structural and decorative woodwork throughout. The interior features wide pine plank flooring on both levels, spruce ceilings and walls, and custom cherry wood kitchen cabinets. Eight-inch square cedar columns not only support the structure but add a distinct architectural element to the interiors. This home has been updated with state-of-the-art mechanical systems to ensure comfort and efficiency. In 2023, a new Lochinvar high-efficiency heater and boiler were installed in the full basement. The property also features modern Daikin Inverter AC/Heating units installed in two upstairs bedrooms and the living and primary bedrooms in 2019. Both upstairs bathrooms have been elegantly retiled in 2022, ensuring modern comforts blend seamlessly with classic charm. Additional updates include a new roof in 2018 and a robust Generac generator installed in 2012. Set below an agricultural reserve and overlooking vibrant wetlands, this home promises a tranquil retreat with a symphony of nature at your doorstep. The property bursts into life with seasonal blooms-from snowdrops and crocuses to lilacs and hydrangeas-creating a lush backdrop that attracts local wildlife, including hummingbirds and honeybees. Large windows and a back deck offer panoramic views of this natural paradise, where tree frogs, Mallard ducks, and occasional herons add to the pastoral charm. The landscape turns into a picturesque winter wonderland, completing the cycle of seasonal beauty that defines living in Water Mill. Discover the perfect blend of artisan craftsmanship and modern luxury at this Water Mill sanctuary, where every detail contributes to a life well-lived amidst the beauty of the Hamptons.

12. 2025-07-17
    historical
13. 2025-04-12
    price $1,750,000
14. 2025-02-19
    price $1,799,000
15. 2024-12-27
    price $1,850,000
16. 2024-10-12
    price $1,890,000
17. 2024-10-04
    listed $1,990,000 Active
18. 1992-04-29
    soldstatus $220,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,875 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,373 · $1,281/mo
• Expected delta: +$11,498/yr (+$958/mo · 296.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $630,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,065
• − Property taxes: −$3,875
• − Insurance: −$8,616
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$50,427
• − Management: −$50,427
• − Depreciation: −$46,255
• Taxable income: $381,671
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$91,601
• After-tax cash flow: $293,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Water Mill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #7088

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Mill, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,952
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+622.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $1,590,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-12 Price Changed $1,750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-19 Price Changed $1,799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-27 Price Changed $1,850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-12 Price Changed $1,890,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-04 Listed $1,990,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,875 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.