3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,457 sqft ·
Built 1974
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 48 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,703/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$781
Tax + insurance
−$202
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$358
Net cashflow
$362/mo
Annual
$4,341/yr
Cap rate
9.21%
Cash-on-cash
10.41%
DSCR
1.46
1% rule
1.14%
Cash to close
$41,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Jacksonville Heights Elementary School (math 33% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,951 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 547 students, 73% FRL); Charger Academy (math 33% / reading 26%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 961 students, 71% FRL); Westside High School (math 26% / reading 19%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 1,583 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 49% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $90k; list at $149k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XHC4A4E04MJ5Z0
· Data 17 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29