21801 New Colony Rd

Buckholts, TX 76569

$65,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · Built 1899 · SingleFamily · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,038/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $403/mo
• Annual: $4,833/yr
• Cap rate: 13.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.56%
• DSCR: 2.18
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,313 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Rogers ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #343 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1899 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1899 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.