21801 New Colony Rd · Buckholts, TX 76569

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1899

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity or fixer upper home on a 2 acre lot. Home has a den upstairs that can be converted to an additional bedroom.

Key facts

• Den upstairs
• 2 acre lot
• Built 1899

Tags

• 2 ACRE LOT
• DEN UPSTAIRS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,313 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Rogers ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #343 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1899 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1899 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.56%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $36,456
• Equity at exit: $32,394

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $90,281
• Equity at exit: $52,539

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76569

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,038 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $587/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $528

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $440	-5% $421	+0% $403	+5% $384	+10% $366
Rent	-10% $321	-5% $362	+0% $403	+5% $444	+10% $485
Rate	-1.0pp $436	-0.5pp $419	base $403	+0.5pp $386	+1.0pp $369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 47 DOM

   Show marketing remark (129 chars)

   Investor opportunity or fixer upper home on a 2 acre lot. Home has a den upstairs that can be converted to an additional bedroom.

4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $65,000 Active 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    Investor opportunity or fixer upper home on a 2 acre lot. Home has a den upstairs that can be converted to an additional bedroom.

18. 2026-04-29
    listed $65,000 Active 129-char remark
19. 2008-11-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $587 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$602/yr (+$50/mo · 102.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$587
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$996
• − Management: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $4,014
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$963
• After-tax cash flow: $3,870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rogers ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837710
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,205
• Composite: 35.81/100
• National rank: #4832
• State rank: #343 of 826 in TX

Livability — Buckholts

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1313
• US rank: #22676

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,946

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 15% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Current HPI: 196.834
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $65,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-29 Listed $65,000 Fizber.com
• 2008-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $587 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.