61 Hooker Ln

Shepherd, TX 77371

$99,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,574/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $550/mo
• Annual: $6,595/yr
• Cap rate: 12.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.79%
• DSCR: 2.06
• 1% rule: 1.59%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $848 of equity ($684 loan paydown + $164 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,112 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Shepherd ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #770 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shepherd Pri (499 students, 85% FRL); Shepherd Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 458 students, 84% FRL); Shepherd H S (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 601 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 64% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 4.5% in Shepherd — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.