61 Hooker Ln · Shepherd, TX 77371

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1974 0.72 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for an affordable home in Shepherd - You have found it! The large fenced in yard and barn is a bonus! Three bedrooms and one bath upstairs, with an unfinished recreation area and bathroom downstairs. Priced to sell - call for a showing today!

Key facts

• Barn
• Fenced in yard
• 0.72 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED IN YARD
• BARN
• UNFINISHED RECREATION AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 4.4% in Shepherd — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,112 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Shepherd ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #770 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shepherd Pri (499 students, 85% FRL); Shepherd Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 458 students, 84% FRL); Shepherd H S (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 601 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 64% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $848 of equity ($684 loan paydown + $164 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.79%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,440
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
61 Hooker Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$99,000	$69	100
280 Jill St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,394 (-3%)	19mo	$244,900	$176	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $32,906
• Equity at exit: $29,567

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $87,710
• Equity at exit: $36,202

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77371

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,574 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,606/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $879

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $606	-5% $578	+0% $550	+5% $522	+10% $494
Rent	-10% $425	-5% $487	+0% $550	+5% $612	+10% $674
Rate	-1.0pp $599	-0.5pp $575	base $550	+0.5pp $524	+1.0pp $498

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-21
   listed $99,000 Active
3. 2023-03-01
   soldstatus
4. 2023-03-01
   soldstatus
5. 2023-02-03
   soldstatus
6. 2016-01-01
   historical
7. 2015-09-02
   price $69,800
8. 2015-07-09
   price $79,800
9. 2015-07-07
   listed $79,000 Active
10. 2015-06-13
    historical
11. 2015-04-15
    listed $85,900 Active
12. 2015-04-15
    historical
13. 2014-10-19
    status Active
14. 2014-10-19
    historical
15. 2014-10-14
    listed $86,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,606 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$206/yr (+$17/mo · 12.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,606
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,511
• − Management: −$1,511
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $5,344
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,282
• After-tax cash flow: $5,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shepherd ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840020
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,857
• Composite: 17.77/100
• National rank: #9016
• State rank: #770 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shepherd

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1112
• US rank: #19716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,548

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 22%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Current HPI: 201.6618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-01-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-09-02 Price Changed $69,800 HARMLS
• 2015-07-09 Price Changed $79,800 HARMLS
• 2015-07-07 Listed $79,000 HARMLS
• 2015-06-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-04-15 Listed $85,900 HARMLS
• 2015-04-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-10-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-10-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-10-14 Listed $86,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,606 · -6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.