9 Chestnut St

Salem, NJ 08079

$249,999D

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,104 sqft · Built 1769 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,350/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$555
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-119/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-119/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (6.0% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $778 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-950 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#462 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Salem City School District (town): math 6% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #464 of 472 in NJ (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1769 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Salem County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Salem County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $250k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 8.4% in Salem — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $2,350/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 663% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1769 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.