7304 N Wagon Trail Rd

Columbia, MO 65202

$125,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,610/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $540/mo
• Annual: $6,475/yr
• Cap rate: 11.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.50%
• DSCR: 1.82
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in MO, #862 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hallsville R-IV (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #87 of 324 in MO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hallsville Primary (351 students, 28% FRL); Hallsville Middle (math 48% / reading 44%, grade D+, #102 of 391 statewide, top 26%, 365 students, 28% FRL); Hallsville High (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 448 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 2.9% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.