7304 N Wagon Trail Rd · Columbia, MO 65202

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · Manufactured · 33 Days on market

2.50 ac lot $82/sqft · 26% below area Est $169k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are looking for a nice property with a little acreage, workshop or equipment storage space, that you can put your own sweat equity into, then take a look at this. The manufactured home needs work, but it sits on 2.5 acres that is surrounded by trees, has a two car garage with a space for a shop and a pond. The owner is motivated to sell so take a look and make an offer.

Key facts

• Utilities on site
• Serene pond
• 2.5 acres

Tags

• 2.5 ACRES
• SERENE POND
• DETACHED GARAGE
• UTILITIES ON SITE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Exterior features: Agricultural zoning; 2.5-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 2.9% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in MO, #862 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hallsville R-IV (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #87 of 324 in MO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hallsville Primary (351 students, 28% FRL); Hallsville Middle (math 48% / reading 44%, grade D+, #102 of 391 statewide, top 26%, 365 students, 28% FRL); Hallsville High (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 448 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.50%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,633
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -25.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7304 N Wagon Trail Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,521 (0%)	0mo	$125,000	$82	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $18,992
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $82,086
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65202

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $292/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $927

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2601 E Oakbrook Dr Unit B Columbia, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-24
   listed $125,000 Active 738-char remark
2. 2025-06-26
   listed $125,000 Active
3. 2022-10-19
   soldstatus
4. 2022-10-13
   soldstatus Closed

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   If you are looking for a nice property with a little acreage, workshop or equipment storage space, that you can put your own sweat equity into, then take a look at this. The manufactured home needs work, but it sits on 2.5 acres that is surrounded by trees, has a two car garage with a space for a shop and a pond. The owner is motivated to sell so take a look and make an offer.

5. 2022-10-03
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   If you are looking for a nice property with a little acreage, workshop or equipment storage space, that you can put your own sweat equity into, then take a look at this. The manufactured home needs work, but it sits on 2.5 acres that is surrounded by trees, has a two car garage with a space for a shop and a pond. The owner is motivated to sell so take a look and make an offer.

6. 2022-09-29
   listed $80,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   If you are looking for a nice property with a little acreage, workshop or equipment storage space, that you can put your own sweat equity into, then take a look at this. The manufactured home needs work, but it sits on 2.5 acres that is surrounded by trees, has a two car garage with a space for a shop and a pond. The owner is motivated to sell so take a look and make an offer.

7. 2021-12-13
   listed $125,000
8. 2012-06-04
   soldstatus
9. 2012-05-01
   soldstatus
10. 2005-11-01
    soldstatus
11. 2005-11-01
    soldstatus
12. 2005-08-02
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $292 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$920/yr (+$77/mo · 314.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$292
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,669
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,121
• After-tax cash flow: $5,355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hallsville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2913560
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $52,529
• Composite: 38.89/100
• National rank: #4097
• State rank: #87 of 324 in MO

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #862

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Boone County · 158,877 people
• City population: 158,877
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 47,327
• Household income: $72,289
• Rent vs Own: 36.8% rent · 63.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1326.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,891 people
• By 2030: 217,799 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 246,789 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 276,116 · +36.1%
• By 2075: 348,426 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 400,856 · +97.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.9% · R 44.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+12.5 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -171.32%
• Current HPI: 205.5154
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+177.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-08 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2026-05-28 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $125,000 CBORMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed $125,000 CBORMLS
• 2022-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-13 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2022-10-03 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2022-09-29 Listed $80,000 CBORMLS
• 2021-12-13 Listed $125,000 CBORMLS
• 2012-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-01 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2005-08-02 Listed $45,000 CBORMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $292 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.