721 Ash Dr

Geneseo, IL 61254

$190,000C+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,593 sqft · Built 2004 · Condo · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$414
• HOA: −$150
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $415/mo
• Annual: $4,976/yr
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.35%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#45 in IL, #907 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, commute F.
• Geneseo CUSD 228 (town): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #297 of 620 in IL (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 32 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.9% in Geneseo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.