721 Ash Dr · Geneseo, IL 61254

$190,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,593 sqft · Condo · 8 Days on market

Built 2004 $119/sqft · 7% below area Est $205k · 7% under $150/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Easy living in Geneseo! This move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath condo offers the space you need without the maintenance you don't. Located just minutes from Geneseo High School, this well-kept home features a bright main level with multiple living spaces, a 4-season room, convenient main-floor laundry, and an attached 2-car garage with extra storage. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite includes private bath access and generous closet space. Major updates include a new roof (2025) and water heater (2024), giving buyers added peace of mind. HOA covers lawn care and snow removal, making everyday living simple and stress-free.

Key facts

• 4 season room
• Private bath access
• Main floor laundry

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• 4 SEASON ROOM
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• ATTACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• PRIVATE BATH ACCESS
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.9% in Geneseo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#45 in IL, #907 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, commute F.
• Geneseo CUSD 228 (town): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #297 of 620 in IL (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 32 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $190,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.35%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,243
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -2.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,187
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $31,133
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61254

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,017/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,975

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 E Palace Row Geneseo, IL	4.0	3.0	1971	$2,500	$1.27	19d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingsnow removal
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $190,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on marketlisting id $190,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,900 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,900 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-04-23
    price $199,900 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Easy living in Geneseo! This move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath condo offers the space you need without the maintenance you don't. Located just minutes from Geneseo High School, this well-kept home features a bright main level with multiple living spaces, a 4-season room, convenient main-floor laundry, and an attached 2-car garage with extra storage. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite includes private bath access and generous closet space. Major updates include a new roof (2025) and water heater (2024), giving buyers added peace of mind. HOA covers lawn care and snow removal, making everyday living simple and stress-free.

11. 2026-03-18
    price $205,000 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Easy living in Geneseo! This move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath condo offers the space you need without the maintenance you don't. Located just minutes from Geneseo High School, this well-kept home features a bright main level with multiple living spaces, a 4-season room, convenient main-floor laundry, and an attached 2-car garage with extra storage. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite includes private bath access and generous closet space. Major updates include a new roof (2025) and water heater (2024), giving buyers added peace of mind. HOA covers lawn care and snow removal, making everyday living simple and stress-free.

12. 2026-02-10
    price $215,000 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Easy living in Geneseo! This move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath condo offers the space you need without the maintenance you don't. Located just minutes from Geneseo High School, this well-kept home features a bright main level with multiple living spaces, a 4-season room, convenient main-floor laundry, and an attached 2-car garage with extra storage. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite includes private bath access and generous closet space. Major updates include a new roof (2025) and water heater (2024), giving buyers added peace of mind. HOA covers lawn care and snow removal, making everyday living simple and stress-free.

13. 2026-01-27
    listed $230,000 Active 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Easy living in Geneseo! This move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath condo offers the space you need without the maintenance you don't. Located just minutes from Geneseo High School, this well-kept home features a bright main level with multiple living spaces, a 4-season room, convenient main-floor laundry, and an attached 2-car garage with extra storage. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite includes private bath access and generous closet space. Major updates include a new roof (2025) and water heater (2024), giving buyers added peace of mind. HOA covers lawn care and snow removal, making everyday living simple and stress-free.

14. 2021-08-06
    historical
15. 2007-06-08
    soldstatus $135,000
16. 2007-06-08
    soldstatus $135,000
17. 2007-04-12
    listed $138,000
18. 2007-04-12
    listed $138,000
19. 2007-04-11
    historical
20. 2006-08-28
    soldstatus $135,000
21. 2006-06-13
    listed $139,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,017 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,165 · $347/mo
• Expected delta: +$148/yr (+$12/mo · 3.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$4,017
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $2,263
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$543
• After-tax cash flow: $4,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Geneseo CUSD 228
• NCES district ID: 1716350
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,288
• Composite: 22.91/100
• National rank: #7996
• State rank: #297 of 620 in IL

Livability — Geneseo

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #907

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Geneseo, IL
• City population: 12,049
• Population (ZIP): 12,049

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,376 people
• By 2030: 45,920 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 42,829 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 39,606 · -16.4%
• By 2075: 31,848 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 23,503 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: English 9% Romanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.5) · D 36.8% · R 61.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.5 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+21.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.08%
• Current HPI: 157.4041
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $199,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $205,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $215,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Listed $230,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-08 Sold (MLS) $135,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-08 Sold (MLS) $135,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-12 Listed $138,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-12 Listed $138,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-11 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-28 Sold (MLS) $135,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-13 Listed $139,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,017 · +15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.